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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that proposals for a ceasefire agreement developed with US officials could be completed in a matter of days. Afterward, American envoys are expected to present the terms to the Kremlin.

Berlin Talks Yield Significant Progress, With Critical Obstacles Remain

After two days of discussions in Berlin, American negotiators reported on Monday that around “90%” of the disputed points between Moscow and Kyiv had been resolved. Despite this optimistic assessment, the path to ending the war is not guaranteed, especially given Russia's absence from the current dialogue.

In the early hours of Tuesday, the Ukrainian president said that the US Congress was anticipated to consider defense assurances and that a complete package of documents might be ready “today or tomorrow.” He added that, the U.S. would engage in discussions with Russian representatives, leading to high-level meetings as soon as this coming weekend.

Security Guarantees and International Support

“The plan involves five documents. Some of them concern security guarantees: legally binding, that is, approved and endorsed by the United States Congress,” Zelenskyy commented to the press. He stated that these assurances would “mirror article 5” of the Nato alliance.

On Monday, US officials declined to give specific details regarding the probable makeup of the defense package or the consequences if Russia attempted to seize additional territory following an agreement. They did, however, confirm that the United States does not intend to place boots on the ground in the country.

Heads of state from the UK, France, Germany and several additional European nations issued a joint statement that troops from a “allied coalition” could “assist in the rebuilding of Ukraine’s forces, in protecting Ukrainian airspace, and in supporting safer seas, including through conducting operations within Ukraine.”

However, they did not proposing these actions would serve as assurances equivalent to NATO's Article 5. In any case, there is little sign that Russia is near accepting the type of package under discussion between Washington and Kyiv.

Kremlin Response and Land Issue

On Tuesday, the Russian government stated it had not received the details of the plans for security assurances. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergey Ryabkov, asserted that the country would never accept forces of Nato countries being stationed in Ukraine “no matter what.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian team and their American counterparts continues to be the territorial question. One proposal involves Kyiv relinquishing the parts of the Donbas region it currently controls, while Ukraine prefers to freeze the lines. “Talks continue on the territorial issue. You know, it is one of the key issues. At this point, there is no consensus on it yet,” Zelenskyy remarked after the Berlin talks.

American mediators, headed by two senior advisors, has proposed a middle-ground proposal. Under this plan would see Ukrainian forces withdraw, but Russia would not move forward, with the demilitarised area established as “an open economic area.” Moscow has suggested it could use internal security formations rather than the military in such an area, implying it would still expect to maintain authority there.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘free economic zone’ does not mean under the control of Moscow. Not legally or in practice do we accept Donbas – its currently occupied areas – as belonging to Russia. Categorically,” stated Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Potential Outcomes

The way ahead is uncertain how Moscow and Kyiv will resolve the territorial issue. The Ukrainian leader has previously suggested that a compromise solution like a special economic area could be conceivable if the citizens of Ukraine voted for it in a referendum. The major impediment is likely to be when the proposals are put to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has shown no indication he is prepared to concede on his military objectives.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will face exactly what we are encountering on our flight right now – instability,” commented the president, recording the comments after his plane took off from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will increase sanction pressure and supply additional armaments if he rejects everything. In my view, that would be a fair request from Ukraine to the United States,” he concluded.