Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the country and triggered disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the political, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in universities but scarcely any politicians or advocates want to engage with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. Each authors two pieces that strive for neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has got valuable insights to learn from the opposing positions."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
